Analysis: A lesson for this season

When the specialist magazine „Kicker“ published the xG table for the 2. Bundesliga last week, some Lilien fans may have been left shaking their heads. xG stands for Expected Goals and is thus a measure of a team’s efficiency in front of goal. Or, to put it even more simply: What number of goals would a team have likely scored based on the chances they had created, and how many points would they have earned if they had converted their chances accordingly? Before the match against SSV Ulm, the Lilien were in 5th place in this table and could celebrate a whopping 48 points.

In fact, the South Hesse side traveled to the Donaustadion in thirteenth place and with 31 points. And experienced something that has happened far too often this season. „Today was a lesson,“ said Florian Kohfeldt after the final whistle, reflecting on a game in which SV 98 once again failed to capitalise on decisive moments. Isaac Lidberg missed a great opportunity to take the lead in the 40th minute, which SSV then scored shortly after halftime. „We gave Ulm a gift, and they accepted it,“ said Kohfeldt, dismayed, recalling the genesis of the goal, as the South Hesse side repeatedly failed to clear the ball out of the danger zone.

The hosts also offered the Lilies a similar gift later in the game, but Killian Corredor was denied a one-on-one chance in front of the goalkeeper after a misplaced pass in Ulm’s defence. It would have been 2-2. It’s precisely these differences that Kohfeldt is referring to when he says his players need to increase their „sense of responsibility for such situations,“ that is, their sensitivity for potentially game-deciding moments. Ulm had this instinct on Friday evening. They embraced the gift of the lead and realised that they had the chance to add another goal in the following minutes. Suddenly, SV 98 found themselves trailing 2-0. The worst-case scenario against a team that Kohfeldt quite rightly described as having delivered a „magnificent, combative and self-sacrificing performance.“

It’s almost pointless to mention that the statistics sheet also showed SV 98 with a higher probability of winning this evening; in the ominous xG table, the South Hesse team now stands at 51 points. They can’t buy anything with that, as their head coach confirmed: „We could make it easy for ourselves, look at the statistics and say: ‚We really have to win this game.‘ But there are reasons, and I’ll address them. It’s not bad luck. I already talked about us not being effective enough in October. It just wasn’t as noticeable back then. Against teams that play like Ulm, Braunschweig, or even Münster, a game generally doesn’t offer that many scoring opportunities. That’s related to the structure of the game. That’s why it’s becoming more apparent in these games that we have a problem with effectiveness.“

A look at another statistic also underscores this problem. SV 98 have already taken 549 shots on goal this season – by far the most in the 2. Bundesliga. This has resulted in 46 goals. While only two teams (HSV and Magdeburg) have scored more, the majority of teams need far fewer attempts to score. By comparison, 1. FC Nürnberg have also scored 46 goals so far – and have needed 395 shots to do so – 154 fewer than the Lilies. An almost unbelievable discrepancy. There are many other statistics that underline what could have been possible for the Lilies this season. But reality is what counts. And this shows SV 98 with seven points in the second half of the season and a far from reassuring lead over the relegation zone.

„We can’t lie to ourselves. We’re in a dangerous situation and urgently need some more points,“ said Kohfeldt, before adding: „Nevertheless, we have to remain rational. We have to clearly address the mistakes and then prepare for the game against Fürth. I’m not a fan of panic. But we can’t say, ‚We’ll get there somehow.'“

Since taking up his duties, the 42-year-old has repeatedly spoken of „development.“ Initially, it was often about „reducing the question marks.“ These initially related to team tactical processes, basic formations, and small nuances within the systems. Those question marks have long since disappeared. Most of the development potential now lies in things that Kohfeldt calls „only partially trainable.“ The correct handling and the right feel for situations. Experience from matches helps with this. Sometimes chasing the ball out of the danger zone and into the stands, because you experienced firsthand in Ulm what can happen if you don’t clear it energetically enough. Trying to score with all your concentration, even though the pitch isn’t optimal and the atmosphere on a Friday evening under the floodlights is completely different than on the training ground.

For many SV 98 players, this is their first season in this special league. And the experiences of the season so far will help them on their way forward and in their long-term development. In the short term, however, they still need points. Ideally, this could be on the next matchday against Fürth.